During the periods I was studying for my Bachelors' degree in Athens, it was extremely obvious that the monetary policy was wrong in too many ways. I attended the University of Athens for free, I got free books and the bus ticket was extremely cheap. I also couldn’t explain why this personal observation was not relevant to the average Greek student. That was part of their own normality.
As I was born and raised in Cyprus, I was familiar with a different world. We were closer to the English system, our companies were more interacting with England and our financial model looked more like England. That gave us some extra benefits, English style knowledge, more money-making opportunities. When I first visited London, back in 1995, the whole experience was like moving to a bigger capital of Cyprus. There was something extremely awkward. The prices were too cheap for me. That of course was part of a monetary miscalculation that was eventually explained during the bust of 2013/2013.
The model of Athens was different. The people had lower wages and less money to spend, in comparison to a Cypriot. Everything was extremely cheap for myself, in Athens, based on my own salary. And because of that reason, the streets of Athens were full of Cypriot visitors, shopping cheaper than in Cyprus. Soon, many Cypriot companies went bust. There was an increased cost they couldn’t afford..
It took me a couple of years to do the math in detail. The Greek government was indirectly supporting the Greek citizen, for many years, in order to make life look affordable. This observation is identical with what the situation is in the UK. The governments make living affordable, through loans that the people will have to repay later.
Both Athens and London were also contributing to the European budget. That means that both countries sent money to Brussels, in order to support the EU mechanism. Salaries, projects, expenses. That is not necessarily bad, but in addition it’s not necessarily good.
If projects work, there is a benefit for the average citizen of the EU. If projects are implemented for laundering purposes, the bill will be revealed sooner or later.
By 2013 I was able to monitor and keep records on how the EU design was laundering funds for the oligarchs of the member countries. In the exact same pattern that the UK did during COVID. By 2015 it was too late for the people of Greece to prevent what was really happening.The country collapsed. Too identical to the existing trend in the UK.
By 2015 the situation was also really bad and extremely obvious for the UK residents.
People paid a bill that went to a black hole. This is an extremely simple explanation for the BREXIT results. Whoever paid and couldn’t afford to continue paying the on-going scheme, had to put an end to it because they couldn’t afford the continuous, increased bill.
The exact same situation was too obvious after I permanently moved to England. I was not able to clearly understand the “why”, but I could notice that there was an indirect support to the businesses that caused increased instability. Main key point, the extremely low taxation for those who controlled the profits in comparison to extremely high taxation for the lower incomes.
When the Conservatives lost their seats and the Labour Party won the majority in the parliament it was too obvious that the damage to the economy was irreversible. The past governments (Conservative/LibDem) lowered the taxation to the business world and at the same time provided financial support to the general public in need through increased loans that we will have to pay in the future. This combination of low taxation for the profit making industries in addition to an indirect but continuous support to the problematic financial model and the direct benefit would explode at some future time. IT happens at this time, as the late Hyman Minsky perfectly explained decades earlier.
This explosion occurred during Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. That was the simple reason the Labour Party won that huge majority of seats. The problem was that the Starmer administration was not experienced enough or prepared enough to fix the long-term problems.
I have to be fair on that. My own studies and research allow me to understand and identify early enough. Too many of the politicians (applying to any country of course..) don’t really have any similar studies and experience to do the job. A perfect example is the United States. Trump keeps trying every possible methodology he thinks, in order to hide the increased instability. Yet, it still is not working..
Most of the current team administration and the previous of course (both in the UK, Cyprus and many other countries of course..) are there for the pay check and the benefits they forward to their own peers. They make it too obvious if we closely observe the OPEKEPE scandal in Greece.
So, just to reward Gary Stevenson, since my article started with Gary Stevenson in mind. He explains in amazing detail why the past administration failed and why the current administration still follows an expired methodology. Although Gary Stevenson is described as Leftish, I personally disagree. He is a good thinker that notices what goes wrong. I believe I do the exact same for my own clients..
I am not considering myself as a Leftish. I am not considering myself as a Rightish. I consider myself as a person that identifies early enough what the administration should do and I prepare myself and my clients for the bad scenarios, if and when they appear.
I was doing the exact same thing when I was working in Greece and also when I was working in Cyprus.
The forecasting is a service to prepare the mass of the population and the business world for the periods the administration will fail to do the right things.
This is the reason I decided to explain, on my own approach, why everybody should read “The Trading Game” and watch the “Gary’s economics” channel on YouTube.
Our job, as the normal people, the professionals, the business owners is to protect ourselves from the malfunctions of the administration. Every time they occur, every time they become too obvious.
Whoever wants to reach the extra mile on the topics, do please get in touch and message me for more details.
