Trading Game , Part II : The times when the evidence reveal the criminal activities

 

What I observe in the UK today, is what I observed in Greece, after 2004 and what I was monitoring in Cyprus, during 2008-2013. MSN published today that another company entered administration. There is a pattern that explains this trend. People have money and spend, during good times but then people have less money, spend less and too many companies suffer huge losses. If we observe the current situation, the people have to pay increased bills. So their extra choices are becoming too limited. After they spend the money for the bills and the rent, they have to choose between food and heating. Anything else has become luxury.

As far as I remember, in the main avenue of Nicosia, there was a BHS store. It shut down when I was still in primary school. Their merchandise was expensive and to my own eyes seemed outdated, as well. I noticed that two decades later, it collapsed in the UK, entered administration and shut down. In the last few years too many companies entered administration. Woolworths, Debenhams, Wilko, Bodycare. There is an extremely simplified explanation for that. Higher costs, high prices, losing customers. As I remember, there was a customer mentioning “why pay for washing powder 4 pounds in Wilko since the exact same costs 2 pounds in Poundland? “.

There was an interesting story during the collapse of Cyprus Airways and Olympic Airways. At the time we all struggled to attract investors, in order to save those two companies, there was another part, inside each company, trying to save their own benefits. Trying to save their own (and unexplained..) benefits meant that no serious investors would risk to save them. That was the main reason that the UK government gave British Airways to the private sector. There is a moment you are not able to control everything. Greece and Cyprus failed to receive the message.

The collapse of the banking system in Iceland is an extremely interesting example of proper management. You leave the markets to do their own job and at the same time you avoid transferring those losses and other hidden obligations to the people that had nothing to do with the mess. The law did their job, as well, investigated and punished. Cyprus followed a completely different behaviour, a few years later. The major Cyprus Banks (Bank of Cyprus and Cyprus Popular Bank) invested in Russia and Ukraine but the outcome was extremely poor. In the exact same period the Cyprus government used the Social Security Pot for their own salaries and pensions. That also activated and increased the financial instability, known as Ponzi finance. There were clear criminal activities, implemented by the Cyprus administrations during that period of time. Although, in Cyprus the bubbles of the oligarchs are too strong. They protect each other and transfer the bill to the rest of the population. The population realised a few years later that their property (including their houses) were sold to foreign funds, in order to cover the losses caused by the banking gang.

There are two extremely valuable books, describing what happens in Cyprus. THE GANG (2020) and MAFIA-STATE (2022) both written by the Cypriot researcher Makarios Drousiotis, explaining how the former Cyprus president, Nikos Anastasiadis, was involved in the wrong-doing and money-laundering. Those two books are part of my own collection, next to the Trading Game of Gary Stevenson, just because there is a continuity from “The Trading Game” period to the GANG and the MAFIA-STATE. Anastasiadis was indeed involved in money-laundering and there are too many proofs for that. The worst part is that the collection of evidence includes the Tassos Papadopoulos administration (2003-2008) in addition to the Dimitris Christofias administration (2008-2013) as well. What happened in Cyprus is still kept hidden and the time it will be revealed, in detail, it will show something worse, the involvement of the European Commission and their own criminal activities..

Nicos Rafidhias studied Political Science and European integration before and during the creation of the European Union and the Euro Zone. 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicos-rafidhias/

Personal page: www.nicosrafidhias.co.uk

Business page: www.officeofis.co.uk

This article is part of his recent book regarding the boom and bust of corporations and countries. 

END OF PART II

Trading Game , Part I : The times when memories bring also valuable facts from the past

I have to admit that I am a great fan of Gary Stevenson and his podcast series called “Gary’s Economics”. Gary Stevenson was a Citigroup trader. He was extremely successful, according to his own words. I am not able, of course, to verify whether he was a successful trader as it is not relevant to my own purposes or research. Stevenson speaks clearly for the “Whom you know” bubble. The people in the bubbles that control the game. This is my primary interest. The people that play the game, too many times without any valuable skills.

I have also noticed a few third-party posts saying that his claims are not always accurate and that there is a different story in many of his own claims. This is not something I would be interested in investigating further, since it’s not part of my interests or capabilities. My own research involves Gary Stevenson as a book author. Gary Stevenson wrote a book called “The Trading Game”. I was amazed to notice too many little details that allowed me to understand the period that Lehman Brothers, Cyprus and Greece went bust. As a well prepared book, it allowed me to bring back memories related to the Lehman Brothers bust, the stock market industry, the Northern Rock boom and bust, the RBS boom and bust, what happened before and what followed that period.

What is the most interesting issue for my own research and book writing is that he mentions and also explains too many things that I started studying thirty years earlier ; wrong doing and money laundering implemented by the National Governments and their private sector peers and in addition the effects they cause to the increased financial instability of the public economics and the Ponzi financing patterns they create. Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, the UK, France or Germany, they all play the game badly. In the end, every time, the general population received the bill.

In addition to this information, there is great detail regarding the financial markets inside stories and the side effects they cause to the normal and basic economic operations. I was part of this “game” around fifteen years before Gary Stevenson. The story was then exactly the same. Some privileged people, as Gary Stevenson mentions, earned large amounts of money from extended speculation. As happened a few years later with the Greek economy. The Greek economy was “stable” for a decade but the real truth was that it was in a very bad situation for many decades. The Greek governments were borrowing massively. A very common practice of almost every government. The interest during the first period of the Euro was equal to Germany’s for some years but when things went really bad, it was way above the average and that activated and increased the financial instability, also known as Ponzi finance. We all remember what followed.

During the last act, the Greek government had to ask for a bailout from the TROIKA.

The TROIKA approach failed exactly like any IMF approach in the past.

You need extremely high skills to design and implement a viable restructuring model and according to my own research both TROIKA and IMF have no interest in that. Their goal, at that moment, was to save the exposure of France. A combination of failures including the trading giants and the public sector inner gang. The government of Greece played the game. Also badly.

The instability in Greece eventually caused a hidden instability for both Germany and France. Here is the main observation I was interested in. Under the normal and basic operations of any unit, meaning a house or a company, you need to have balanced economics and limited exposure. It is not possible to keep imbalances for long. Eventually, you will be out of the economic circle and the competition will buy your business or steal your market position.

This is why “The Trading Game” is an exciting reading. We can see when the traders take advantage, the time the circle of a company or a country is completed and how much hidden cost the ordinary people have to pay without even noticing it. Both directly and indirectly. Yesterday was Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain. Cyprus followed. Today we have reached the core of the problem, the UK, France and Germany. What happens at the moment and what I expect to follow will be explained in the following part where I will remember the days of the Yellow vests..

Nicos Rafidhias studied Political Science and European integration before and during the creation of the European Union and the Euro Zone. 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicos-rafidhias/

Personal page: www.nicosrafidhias.co.uk

Business page: www.officeofis.co.uk

This article is part of his recent book regarding the boom and bust of corporations and countries. 

 

END OF PART I

The times real experts are needed

 As the UK is now copying the pattern that both Greece and Cyprus followed between 2006 and 2015, the lesson is the exact same ; you never put amateurs to do the job of professionals.

After thirty years in business, I find that the most valuable modules I ever studied were the Financial Instability Hypothesis and the Minsky Moment.

Funny detail ; those modules were studied because of my personal curiosity and my personal business activities.

Although most Universities tend to offer the typical modules of Political Science, Political Economy, Marketing, Management and Human Resources, the people that do that extra mile always get knowledge that makes the difference.

Today's CITY AM (post shared earlier) admits that the industry of education brings a dangerous combination of problems to the most recent graduates ; debt and unemployment. The industry sells a generic service that stopped providing any benefit.

During my Bachelor's studies in Political Science (around 20 years earlier), I was lucky to have a lecture by the UK Ambassador in Athens, Greece. The Ambassador described the UK business system as extremely stable, in comparison to the Greek system. Long term job positions, building careers in comparison to the short term job model of Greece.

Although the Ambassador was right on his observation and analysis, at that timeframe, around ten years later I found out that the UK unfortunately copied the model of Greece ; short term job positions, freezing the salary of the low income population and covering the gap through the Universal Credit pot while multiplying the salary of the politicians and the public administration, paid by continuous loans.

This long-term policy, followed not only by Truss but by several previous administrations including Thatcher, caused the Minsky Moment during Liz Truss 45 days in power. Since then, Truss repeatedly stated that she did nothing wrong, despite Kwasi Kwarteng's repeated statements, admitting the mistakes they made.

How Liz Truss caused a Minsky Moment ?

Liz Truss decided to give extra free money to peers from a country already facing collapse. All previous administrations provided free money to their peers ; Truss made that little extra effort.

Why did Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer continue the same pattern ?

Both Sunak and Starmer are part of a huge circle of politicians with extremely limited knowledge on how to run a country or a union. They never had any courses on the field because if they had they could notice and correct the red flags. The majority of the politicians I met, all gave promises to their supporters including free money and benefits, like Boris Johnson did with Michelle Mone.

The Financial Instability Hypothesis and the Minsky Moment explains the day that you give everything and you now operate on increased loans and multiplied interest rates.

This is a phase where real experts are needed.

Are we able to monitor and control success and failure ?

 Are we able to monitor and control success and failure ?

Back in 1989 a young student bought his first shares

in the stock exchange.

In the next 20 years he was lucky to evaluate

the potentials of around 2000 more companies in Cyprus, Greece

and the United Kingdom,

monitoring also what went wrong for those that shut down.

When the Cyprus Stock Exchange collapsed and billions of pounds were lost , without any obvious reason, that was a red flag that for an aspiring professional on fraud investigation would be repeated

As a Bachelors studies student, the same person, 

made a couple of assumptions regarding the EU design, stability and future failure.

Unfortunately, today we monitor the most negative

of those scenarios happening. The people that implemented and monitored the procedures of European integration had no idea on how to do it properly. This is why today we are discussing the models of a soft disintegration.

What the outcome of the 2008 crisis has proven for sure

was that PIGS cannot fly if monitoring and controlling is left to people with limited skills and experience..

The collapse of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain

opened the Pandora Box

for the United Kingdom, Germany and France, but the red flags were not obvious unless you had studies and experience on the topic of Ponzi finance.

This is why today all governments wonder how to fix the problems they caused but in fact they have absolutely no idea on how to do it.

The pattern is identical and whoever can observe it, is always one step ahead but the majority of the population will pay a huge bill.

This is because both the Project Managers and the Fraud investigators failed to do their own job properly, when they should.

Ten years earlier I wrote a post regarding the upcoming problems of France. Today everyone discusses those problems but fails to understand the necessary solutions. In the meantime, the United Kingdom has left the European Union, in order to fix their own issues. This is how inevitable that choice was.

Based on the evidence, coming from cases such as 

- Overend, Gurney and Company,

- Northern Rock,

- Royal Bank of Scotland,

- Lehman Brothers,

- Cyprus Popular Bank (MARFIN Laiki) Group,

- the Cyprus and the Greek bust,

and the most recent cases of :

- Wilko and

- Poundland,

I have recently created a series of modules

focused on the necessity of monitoring, controlling and re-designing,

during the periods that things go really bad.

Based on the case studies and the evidence, I follow

the routes of how the money disappears each time and

who are the organizations

that will allow the system to restart again.

This research allows the participants to understand

how important it is to make a functional design and implementation,

especially during the periods that the society needs stronger support,

in order to recover sooner.

An important module, allow my learners to understand Ponzi schemes in the 21st century era

and the importance of Hyman Minsky and the Ponzi Finance theory

in order to identify and evaluate the health condition stages of any private and public body.

As a professional on the field, I am always looking to train the organizations and the teams that plan to be the problem solvers of tomorrow and I offer the best available knowledge.

So when I read articles blaming Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves, Emmanuel Macron I can instantly understand which parts of the analysis are accurate and which parts are misleading, based on the personal perceptions of the writer. What I could say as a general rule is that each leader brings good things among bad things, during their administration. Unfortunately, it takes too much time to evaluate whether the majority of their actions were good or bad and it’s always too late to fix the damages that were caused.

This is where Political science meets Project Management and Fraud investigation, in order to provide the best possible solution.

If you have some examples to share, please share your own comment or example.