The times real experts are needed

 As the UK is now copying the pattern that both Greece and Cyprus followed between 2006 and 2015, the lesson is the exact same ; you never put amateurs to do the job of professionals.

After thirty years in business, I find that the most valuable modules I ever studied were the Financial Instability Hypothesis and the Minsky Moment.

Funny detail ; those modules were studied because of my personal curiosity and my personal business activities.

Although most Universities tend to offer the typical modules of Political Science, Political Economy, Marketing, Management and Human Resources, the people that do that extra mile always get knowledge that makes the difference.

Today's CITY AM (post shared earlier) admits that the industry of education brings a dangerous combination of problems to the most recent graduates ; debt and unemployment. The industry sells a generic service that stopped providing any benefit.

During my Bachelor's studies in Political Science (around 20 years earlier), I was lucky to have a lecture by the UK Ambassador in Athens, Greece. The Ambassador described the UK business system as extremely stable, in comparison to the Greek system. Long term job positions, building careers in comparison to the short term job model of Greece.

Although the Ambassador was right on his observation and analysis, at that timeframe, around ten years later I found out that the UK unfortunately copied the model of Greece ; short term job positions, freezing the salary of the low income population and covering the gap through the Universal Credit pot while multiplying the salary of the politicians and the public administration, paid by continuous loans.

This long-term policy, followed not only by Truss but by several previous administrations including Thatcher, caused the Minsky Moment during Liz Truss 45 days in power. Since then, Truss repeatedly stated that she did nothing wrong, despite Kwasi Kwarteng's repeated statements, admitting the mistakes they made.

How Liz Truss caused a Minsky Moment ?

Liz Truss decided to give extra free money to peers from a country already facing collapse. All previous administrations provided free money to their peers ; Truss made that little extra effort.

Why did Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer continue the same pattern ?

Both Sunak and Starmer are part of a huge circle of politicians with extremely limited knowledge on how to run a country or a union. They never had any courses on the field because if they had they could notice and correct the red flags. The majority of the politicians I met, all gave promises to their supporters including free money and benefits, like Boris Johnson did with Michelle Mone.

The Financial Instability Hypothesis and the Minsky Moment explains the day that you give everything and you now operate on increased loans and multiplied interest rates.

This is a phase where real experts are needed.

Are we able to monitor and control success and failure ?

 Are we able to monitor and control success and failure ?

Back in 1989 a young student bought his first shares

in the stock exchange.

In the next 20 years he was lucky to evaluate

the potentials of around 2000 more companies in Cyprus, Greece

and the United Kingdom,

monitoring also what went wrong for those that shut down.

When the Cyprus Stock Exchange collapsed and billions of pounds were lost , without any obvious reason, that was a red flag that for an aspiring professional on fraud investigation would be repeated

As a Bachelors studies student, the same person, 

made a couple of assumptions regarding the EU design, stability and future failure.

Unfortunately, today we monitor the most negative

of those scenarios happening. The people that implemented and monitored the procedures of European integration had no idea on how to do it properly. This is why today we are discussing the models of a soft disintegration.

What the outcome of the 2008 crisis has proven for sure

was that PIGS cannot fly if monitoring and controlling is left to people with limited skills and experience..

The collapse of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain

opened the Pandora Box

for the United Kingdom, Germany and France, but the red flags were not obvious unless you had studies and experience on the topic of Ponzi finance.

This is why today all governments wonder how to fix the problems they caused but in fact they have absolutely no idea on how to do it.

The pattern is identical and whoever can observe it, is always one step ahead but the majority of the population will pay a huge bill.

This is because both the Project Managers and the Fraud investigators failed to do their own job properly, when they should.

Ten years earlier I wrote a post regarding the upcoming problems of France. Today everyone discusses those problems but fails to understand the necessary solutions. In the meantime, the United Kingdom has left the European Union, in order to fix their own issues. This is how inevitable that choice was.

Based on the evidence, coming from cases such as 

- Overend, Gurney and Company,

- Northern Rock,

- Royal Bank of Scotland,

- Lehman Brothers,

- Cyprus Popular Bank (MARFIN Laiki) Group,

- the Cyprus and the Greek bust,

and the most recent cases of :

- Wilko and

- Poundland,

I have recently created a series of modules

focused on the necessity of monitoring, controlling and re-designing,

during the periods that things go really bad.

Based on the case studies and the evidence, I follow

the routes of how the money disappears each time and

who are the organizations

that will allow the system to restart again.

This research allows the participants to understand

how important it is to make a functional design and implementation,

especially during the periods that the society needs stronger support,

in order to recover sooner.

An important module, allow my learners to understand Ponzi schemes in the 21st century era

and the importance of Hyman Minsky and the Ponzi Finance theory

in order to identify and evaluate the health condition stages of any private and public body.

As a professional on the field, I am always looking to train the organizations and the teams that plan to be the problem solvers of tomorrow and I offer the best available knowledge.

So when I read articles blaming Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves, Emmanuel Macron I can instantly understand which parts of the analysis are accurate and which parts are misleading, based on the personal perceptions of the writer. What I could say as a general rule is that each leader brings good things among bad things, during their administration. Unfortunately, it takes too much time to evaluate whether the majority of their actions were good or bad and it’s always too late to fix the damages that were caused.

This is where Political science meets Project Management and Fraud investigation, in order to provide the best possible solution.

If you have some examples to share, please share your own comment or example.